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Good question. That can only be answered with guesses and speculation, specially if you’re not from there and were present throughout these events. A lot of academics might rush in with bad takes in hindsight. You can never pinpoint/predict exactly when it will happen, and which will be the tipping point, but it’s better understood when the potential is there for something like this can happen, which doesn’t always mean that it will, but eventually it does since it’s a recurrent thing.